The Deceptively Easy Tsukiball Toss / Discussion

This is the discussion related to the wiki page The Deceptively Easy Tsukiball Toss.

jimwormmaster 11 Jan 2010 08:40

If you win a prize, but don't claim it, can you start from that point at the next festival, or do you always have to start back at prize level 0 each subsequent festival?

jimwormmaster 12 Apr 2010 20:32

Nevermind…I found out that if you miss a throw, you lose any prize you would have gotten….

khoross 31 Jul 2010 08:53

Can someone link me to where we got that the expected cost of a ShoNuff at level72 is ~10M? I've tried to work it out myself, and get >34M

Buretsu 31 Jul 2010 18:44

The 10 million math is off. At Level 72, there's a 1 in 8568 chance of winning the Sho Nuff, which chances of roughly 1:1, 1:4, 1:14 and 1:153.

The math changes based on how the pricing for the game works.

If 2000 Ryo lets you roll until you fail, then it's a simple matter of 8568 * 2000 for the cost, or 17 million Ryo.

If, however, 2000 Ryo only lets you roll once, pass or fail, then the math gets harder.
8568 times you'll pay to get the Potion Base.
8568 times you'll pay to try for the Super Potion.
2142 times you'll succeed, and pay to try for the Golden Potion.
153 time you'll suceed, and pay to try for the Sho Nuff.

At that point, the math becomes (8568 + 8568 + 2142 + 153) * 2000, or about 39 million Ryo.

Shikyo (guest) 11 Jul 2011 05:29

So… anyone have a cheap sho nuff? Ive been playing this game for more than 2 years and I still havent gotten one. Ums for the poor? LOL

Buretsu 11 Jul 2011 08:57

On the 2th of every month, have your Filler themes activated, and give something away on Ninjamas, catch the people giving away Sho Nuffs and O11Ks for the trophy involved. Easy and cheap.

MIKOLA 11 Jul 2011 16:19

On 23th, bro :) Give kaidrop and be in the Nice List for bonus unic items too :) More Details :)

taltamir 11 Jul 2011 19:59

I calculated the chance of winning a sho enough elixer to be 1 in 7367.7554869684499314128943758573

But the notes say: "It takes on average 7358 games at level 72 to receive a Sho Nuff Elixir (around 34,000,000 ryo)" which is a similar but distinctly different value.

To calculate my value I took reciprocal ( (72/11000) * (72/1000) * (72*250) )
Can someone point out the error in my math or confirm that the error is in the data on the page?

Furthermore, 2000 ryo/game * 7358 games = 14,716,000 ryo total not 34,000,000…
EDIT: I see now, its 2000 per roll, not 2000 per game. So the cost is higher. I will do the exact calculation later. Nonetheless, the first issue remains.

Last edited on 11 Jul 2011 20:05 by taltamir + Show more

Buretsu 11 Jul 2011 20:15

The figure you got is 7367. The number listed is 7358. That's a difference of 9, or .002% higher than the current one listed. It's an insignificant difference.

taltamir 11 Aug 2011 09:48

Indeed the difference is insignificant, I noticed it myself.
But even a minor error is worth correcting, and even if not, I personally would like to know if I had made an error for my own benefit (learning from your errors is vital). This is why I posted my math and asked.